J1 2026-27 -- round of 2026-09-05
Match probabilities for Japan's J1 League. 10 fixtures, fixed before kickoff. The market is measurably better than this model — a disagreement below is a question, not an answer. Full caveat & numbers.
| Kickoff | Home | Away | P(H) | P(D) | P(A) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 05 10:00 | Avispa Fukuoka | Mito | 38.6% | 28.5% | 33.0% | not yet played |
| Sep 06 09:00 | Nagoya Grampus | Machida | 26.8% | 25.6% | 47.6% | not yet played |
| Sep 06 09:00 | Okayama | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 23.1% | 29.0% | 47.9% | not yet played |
| Sep 06 09:00 | Chiba | Gamba Osaka | 20.5% | 20.7% | 58.8% | not yet played |
| Sep 06 09:00 | Kashima Antlers | Urawa Reds | 53.5% | 23.7% | 22.8% | not yet played |
| Sep 06 10:00 | Cerezo Osaka | Verdy | 47.5% | 27.2% | 25.3% | not yet played |
| Sep 06 10:00 | Kashiwa Reysol | Yokohama F. Marinos | 45.7% | 23.8% | 30.5% | not yet played |
| Sep 06 10:00 | Kawasaki Frontale | Shimizu S-Pulse | 55.4% | 21.9% | 22.6% | not yet played |
| Sep 06 10:00 | Vissel Kobe | V-Varen Nagasaki | 67.4% | 19.3% | 13.3% | not yet played |
| Sep 06 10:30 | FC Tokyo | Kyoto | 38.2% | 25.2% | 36.5% | not yet played |
Over 3,882 backtested J1 matches (2014–2025-26), the closing betting market scored 0.0044 RPS points better than this model on average (95% CI [0.0026, 0.0060]) — see Methodology. This model has no information the market lacks: it does not see injuries, lineups, suspensions or travel. The bold figure in each row is only the most likely of three outcomes, not advice — in most football matches the most likely single outcome still loses more often than it wins.