J1 2026-27 -- round of 2026-08-21
Match probabilities for Japan's J1 League. 10 fixtures, fixed before kickoff. The market is measurably better than this model — a disagreement below is a question, not an answer. Full caveat & numbers.
| Kickoff | Home | Away | P(H) | P(D) | P(A) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 10:00 | Kashiwa Reysol | V-Varen Nagasaki | 53.3% | 24.3% | 22.4% | not yet played |
| Aug 21 10:30 | FC Tokyo | Chiba | 63.4% | 19.8% | 16.8% | not yet played |
| Aug 22 09:00 | Kashima Antlers | Avispa Fukuoka | 51.1% | 27.5% | 21.3% | not yet played |
| Aug 22 09:30 | Okayama | Verdy | 40.2% | 31.1% | 28.7% | not yet played |
| Aug 22 10:00 | Cerezo Osaka | Shimizu S-Pulse | 46.3% | 25.0% | 28.7% | not yet played |
| Aug 22 10:00 | Nagoya Grampus | Gamba Osaka | 37.3% | 25.4% | 37.3% | not yet played |
| Aug 22 10:00 | Kyoto | Mito | 54.2% | 23.5% | 22.3% | not yet played |
| Aug 22 10:15 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Kawasaki Frontale | 52.8% | 22.1% | 25.1% | not yet played |
| Aug 22 10:30 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Vissel Kobe | 35.6% | 25.7% | 38.7% | not yet played |
| Aug 23 10:30 | Machida | Urawa Reds | 51.7% | 24.9% | 23.4% | not yet played |
Over 3,882 backtested J1 matches (2014–2025-26), the closing betting market scored 0.0044 RPS points better than this model on average (95% CI [0.0026, 0.0060]) — see Methodology. This model has no information the market lacks: it does not see injuries, lineups, suspensions or travel. The bold figure in each row is only the most likely of three outcomes, not advice — in most football matches the most likely single outcome still loses more often than it wins.