J1 2026-27 -- round of 2026-08-29
Match probabilities for Japan's J1 League. 10 fixtures, fixed before kickoff. The market is measurably better than this model — a disagreement below is a question, not an answer. Full caveat & numbers.
| Kickoff | Home | Away | P(H) | P(D) | P(A) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29 09:00 | Mito | Machida | 22.7% | 24.4% | 52.9% | 1–1 (D) · provisional |
| Aug 29 09:00 | Gamba Osaka | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 29.1% | 25.2% | 45.7% | 0–0 (D) · provisional |
| Aug 29 09:30 | V-Varen Nagasaki | FC Tokyo | 38.0% | 26.0% | 36.1% | 0–3 (A) · provisional |
| Aug 29 09:30 | Shimizu S-Pulse | Kashiwa Reysol | 30.1% | 26.8% | 43.1% | 0–1 (A) · provisional |
| Aug 29 10:00 | Kyoto | Avispa Fukuoka | 44.2% | 28.6% | 27.2% | 2–1 (H) · provisional |
| Aug 29 10:00 | Vissel Kobe | Cerezo Osaka | 52.6% | 24.2% | 23.2% | 1–0 (H) · provisional |
| Aug 29 10:00 | Nagoya Grampus | Okayama | 40.3% | 28.8% | 30.9% | 2–1 (H) · provisional |
| Aug 29 10:00 | Kawasaki Frontale | Chiba | 74.8% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 4–2 (H) · provisional |
| Aug 29 10:00 | Verdy | Kashima Antlers | 23.1% | 27.2% | 49.7% | 0–2 (A) · provisional |
| Aug 29 10:00 | Urawa Reds | Yokohama F. Marinos | 39.8% | 24.7% | 35.5% | 3–2 (H) · provisional |
Round result
10 of 10 fixtures resolved. Mean RPS (calibrated model): 0.1790. See Track Record for the cumulative, non-backtest picture.
Over 3,882 backtested J1 matches (2014–2025-26), the closing betting market scored 0.0044 RPS points better than this model on average (95% CI [0.0026, 0.0060]) — see Methodology. This model has no information the market lacks: it does not see injuries, lineups, suspensions or travel. The bold figure in each row is only the most likely of three outcomes, not advice — in most football matches the most likely single outcome still loses more often than it wins.