J1 2026-27 -- round of 2026-10-17
Match probabilities for Japan's J1 League. 10 fixtures, fixed before kickoff. The market is measurably better than this model — a disagreement below is a question, not an answer. Full caveat & numbers.
| Kickoff | Home | Away | P(H) | P(D) | P(A) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 04:00 | Shimizu S-Pulse | Gamba Osaka | 39.7% | 27.2% | 33.0% | 2–2 (D) · provisional |
| Oct 17 05:00 | Verdy | FC Tokyo | 26.8% | 29.4% | 43.8% | 0–4 (A) · provisional |
| Oct 17 05:00 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Kyoto | 56.5% | 23.5% | 20.1% | 3–0 (H) · provisional |
| Oct 17 05:00 | Chiba | Yokohama F. Marinos | 20.0% | 21.3% | 58.7% | 0–0 (D) · provisional |
| Oct 17 06:00 | Cerezo Osaka | Kawasaki Frontale | 36.5% | 22.7% | 40.7% | 2–4 (A) · provisional |
| Oct 17 06:00 | Kashima Antlers | V-Varen Nagasaki | 67.4% | 18.2% | 14.4% | 2–0 (H) · provisional |
| Oct 17 07:00 | Mito | Urawa Reds | 38.0% | 25.1% | 36.8% | 0–1 (A) · provisional |
| Oct 17 10:00 | Kashiwa Reysol | Nagoya Grampus | 55.1% | 23.2% | 21.8% | 1–3 (A) · provisional |
| Oct 18 04:55 | Okayama | Vissel Kobe | 27.2% | 28.2% | 44.6% | 0–3 (A) · provisional |
| Oct 18 07:00 | Machida | Avispa Fukuoka | 55.2% | 25.6% | 19.2% | 3–0 (H) · provisional |
Round result
10 of 10 fixtures resolved. Mean RPS (calibrated model): 0.1979. See Track Record for the cumulative, non-backtest picture.
Over 3,882 backtested J1 matches (2014–2025-26), the closing betting market scored 0.0044 RPS points better than this model on average (95% CI [0.0026, 0.0060]) — see Methodology. This model has no information the market lacks: it does not see injuries, lineups, suspensions or travel. The bold figure in each row is only the most likely of three outcomes, not advice — in most football matches the most likely single outcome still loses more often than it wins.