J1 2026-27 -- round of 2026-09-11
Match probabilities for Japan's J1 League. 10 fixtures, fixed before kickoff. The market is measurably better than this model — a disagreement below is a question, not an answer. Full caveat & numbers.
| Kickoff | Home | Away | P(H) | P(D) | P(A) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 10:00 | Vissel Kobe | Kashima Antlers | 41.3% | 27.5% | 31.2% | not yet played |
| Sep 11 10:00 | Kyoto | Kashiwa Reysol | 39.4% | 26.2% | 34.4% | not yet played |
| Sep 12 09:00 | Mito | Kawasaki Frontale | 43.8% | 21.3% | 34.9% | not yet played |
| Sep 12 09:30 | Shimizu S-Pulse | Avispa Fukuoka | 34.5% | 30.7% | 34.7% | not yet played |
| Sep 12 10:00 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Cerezo Osaka | 54.7% | 24.3% | 21.0% | not yet played |
| Sep 12 10:00 | Machida | Yokohama F. Marinos | 52.8% | 23.2% | 24.0% | not yet played |
| Sep 12 10:00 | Gamba Osaka | FC Tokyo | 40.3% | 25.3% | 34.3% | not yet played |
| Sep 12 10:00 | V-Varen Nagasaki | Nagoya Grampus | 32.1% | 23.6% | 44.3% | not yet played |
| Sep 13 09:00 | Verdy | Chiba | 48.8% | 26.9% | 24.3% | not yet played |
| Sep 13 09:30 | Urawa Reds | Okayama | 47.8% | 26.6% | 25.6% | not yet played |
Over 3,882 backtested J1 matches (2014–2025-26), the closing betting market scored 0.0044 RPS points better than this model on average (95% CI [0.0026, 0.0060]) — see Methodology. This model has no information the market lacks: it does not see injuries, lineups, suspensions or travel. The bold figure in each row is only the most likely of three outcomes, not advice — in most football matches the most likely single outcome still loses more often than it wins.